000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical
cyclone development is not expected. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a
non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force.
Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it
moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern
United States toward Atlantic Canada. Additional information on
this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday,
where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg