000
ABNT20 KNHC 051745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a weak frontal
boundary located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by late
Friday and Saturday as another frontal boundary approaches the
system. Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is
expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data
indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force. This
system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics
over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday,
further development is not expected. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Development is not
expected through this weekend while the system moves little. Some
slow development appears possible early next week when the
disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Development is not expected before the
system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.
Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit
development of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Delgado