000
ABNT20 KNHC 051152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by
Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected
across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or
so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Significant development appears unlikely
before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early
Friday. Some development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen