265
ABNT20 KNHC 050526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity well to the east of its center. This system could acquire
some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. Once the low moves over cooler
waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not
expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the
western Caribbean Sea continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible
in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart