Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 022055
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 9 15(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SABA 34 4 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 7 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
BARBUDA 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
BARBUDA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 72 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
GUADELOUPE 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE