000
ABNT20 KNHC 281725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward
for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
Satellite data indicate that a well-defined low pressure area has
formed about 150 miles southwest of Bermuda. This system is
currently producing a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain only
marginally conducive, and any additional development should be slow
to occur over the next day or so. By late Saturday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become even less favorable, and the low is
expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
Therefore, development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown