Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022
000 WTNT32 KNHC 162048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 61.1W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Barahona * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast later on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is forecast to move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours or so before the center of Fiona reaches the Dominican Republic on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Observations from Guadeloupe indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area and will continue through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Saturday morning, and across Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Dominica this evening or tonight and across the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall totals: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches possible Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, and are beginning to reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Swells will then reach the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg