Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 160858
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 16(28)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 12(36)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 4(24)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 2(26)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 6(41)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 11(35) 2(37)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 12(41) 1(42) X(42)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 20(50) 2(52) X(52)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 18(48) 5(53) X(53) 1(54)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 11(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT JOHN 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 8(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 11(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 16(18) 19(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 1 27(28) 25(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55)
SABA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 33(35) 23(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 45(47) 16(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 6 31(37) 4(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)
ANTIGUA 34 9 55(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
ANTIGUA 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 17 68(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
GUADELOUPE 50 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
GUADELOUPE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 1 11(12) 33(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
AVES 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
AVES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DOMINICA 34 4 40(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
DOMINICA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARTINIQUE 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT LUCIA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART