Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150845 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras. Belize radar has provided some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the center either. Finding the center has been challenging overnight. Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time. The initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery and continuity from the previous NHC forecast. The initial intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 40 kt. Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt. A mid-level ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Sara to slow down today. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early Sunday. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours. Slight strengthening is then forecast while the system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize. The bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
