Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
805
FONT13 KNHC 070846
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 3(23) 1(24)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 4(22) 1(23)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
