Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 061452
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18)
NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) 2(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
HAVANA 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
HAVANA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLE OF PINES 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
ISLE OF PINES 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
