Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 060851
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 2 13(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 8(28) 1(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 4(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 64 24(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
HAVANA 50 7 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30)
HAVANA 64 3 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLE OF PINES 34 95 X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
ISLE OF PINES 50 62 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
ISLE OF PINES 64 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
CIENFUEGOS 34 17 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
