Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 060256
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MARATHON FL 34 3 20(23) 6(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 43(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NAPLES FL 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23)
TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 6(40) 1(41)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 3(38)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 6(29)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14)
ANDROS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 5(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HAVANA 34 5 88(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
HAVANA 50 1 60(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
HAVANA 64 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ISLE OF PINES 34 53 37(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
ISLE OF PINES 50 7 44(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
ISLE OF PINES 64 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
CIENFUEGOS 34 81 4(85) X(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86)
CIENFUEGOS 50 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CIENFUEGOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN