Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 052041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 79.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next two to three days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven