Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 200253
PWSAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 16(30) 1(31) X(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 16(24) 3(27) X(27)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21)
GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 23(25) 14(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART