000
ABNT20 KNHC 152322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system approaches or moves near the
Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven