000
ABNT20 KNHC 141726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen