000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart