Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 171445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory. The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
