Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 172035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon. Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center, though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at 1800 UTC. As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall that day. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.8N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
