Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
404 WTNT44 KNHC 150255 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found 925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat elongated west to east. Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras. As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the previous forecast. While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening. Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more northern track than forecast could result in additional strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
