Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 141450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become better organized this morning, with improved curved banding features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which will provide more information on current intensity and structure. The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Kelly
