Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 140234
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 9(30)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 6(22)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 15(52) 7(59) 2(61)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 3(24)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MANAGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI