Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 132048
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 6(16)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 9(26)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 17(53) 7(60) 2(62)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 3(26)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
