Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 050259
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) 1(23) 1(24)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 17(17) 29(46) 8(54) 2(56) X(56)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 18(18) 41(59) 10(69) 1(70) X(70)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 18(43) 1(44) 1(45)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 4(40) X(40)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 4(28) 1(29)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 1(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) 1(30)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 5(33)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 7(38)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 10(36) 2(38) X(38)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 27(27) 48(75) 4(79) X(79) 1(80)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 58(62) 16(78) 1(79) 1(80) X(80)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 29(29) 22(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 12(12) 63(75) 5(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 26(27) 29(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 68 20(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MONTEGO BAY 50 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
KINGSTON 34 65 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN