Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000 WTNT41 KNHC 221455 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had difficulty locating a center this morning. Data from the plane and visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming elongated. Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it. Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt. Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is being discontinued. Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an uncertain 040/10 kt. Oscar should accelerate northeastward along the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or so. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours. Within the next couple of days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar. The resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge with the tropical cyclone or its remnants. The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is anticipated. Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
