Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
000 WTNT35 KNHC 182345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 85.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 85.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday while the system approaches the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). NOAA buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust of 38 mph (61 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart