Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
000 WTNT45 KNHC 190239 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The satellite presentation of the disturbance has improved this evening. Curved bands of deep convection have developed closer to the estimated center position, although it is unclear from recent passive microwave imagery whether a well-defined surface center exists yet. The strongest winds are occurring within the convective bands to the north of the center, where NOAA buoy 42056 has reported sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts to tropical storm force. Based on these observations and available satellite data, the system will remain a 30-kt potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Data from an ASCAT-C overpass will arrive within the next couple of hours, which should provide some clarity about the current intensity of the system and whether it has a well-defined center. The disturbance appears to be moving westward at about 7 kt to the south of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. The latest track guidance agrees that the system should continue on a westward heading through Saturday night and cross the coast of Belize between 12-24 h from now. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Despite limited time remaining over water, warm SSTs and relatively low shear in a moist environment should allow the system to consolidate and strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves ashore. The strongest winds are forecast to occur within the northern semicircle, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Belize City northward to Tulum, Mexico. Weakening is expected once the system moves inland, and it is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible as the system moves westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart