000
ABNT20 KNHC 180504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Leeward
Islands northward for a couple hundred miles over the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be
slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
at around 20 mph, passing near or just north of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or two, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen