Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 092355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 82.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall just south of the Tampa Bay region within the next hour or two, and then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely until landfall, and Milton is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. The system is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. A C-MAN Station in Venice, Florida recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (145 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft Tampa Bay...6-9 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area and will spread east-northeastward across the Florida peninsula overnight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this evening and tonight across parts of central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch