000
ABNT20 KNHC 041733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven