000
ABNT20 KNHC 300517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,
on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of
this week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch