000
ABNT20 KNHC 190545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
This system is forecast to interact with another area of low
pressure to its west while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. While environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development by the
end of this week, a tropical depression or storm could still re-form
in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the
central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin