Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 101153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 95.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 395 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east of Morgan City to Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. Francine is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
