000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf. This system is expected to
meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and some slow
development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the
system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not
expected. Regardless, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding
across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in
organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to move
westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development while the system
moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle
and latter parts of the week, and a tropical depression could form
during that time. Regardless of development, this system could
result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore by
Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system throughout the week while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart