Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
000 WTNT42 KNHC 022041 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear. Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion. This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches will likely be required later today or tonight. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
