000
ABNT20 KNHC 152318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system
moves northeastward across the western and central part of the
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti,
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure appears to be forming near
southern Florida along a frontal boundary. This system is forecast
to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the
east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. Although development
into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to
produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of
days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi