000
ABNT20 KNHC 151154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could still
form by the weekend while the system begins moving northeastward
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this
system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop near
southern Florida along a surface trough over the next day or so.
This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas
and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over
the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears
unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin