Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023
836 WTNT32 KNHC 021754 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 200 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 ...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 61.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6-12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 61.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is anticipated through early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. The strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands after the center passes. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Stevenson