Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE/LAMERS NNNN