000
ABNT20 KNHC 281142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several
hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near Bermuda
southward over the western Atlantic for several hundred miles is
associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form along the northern portion of the
trough axis later today, but environmental conditions are forecast
to be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow
to occur. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become even less favorable for development, and the low is expected
to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown