Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022
026 WTNT32 KNHC 170244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 ...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 62.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo on the south coast around the eastern portion of the island to Puerto Plata on the north coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward to Barahona A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is forecast to move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Dominican Republic on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently reported at VC Bird International Airport in Antigua. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area through Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Saturday morning, and across Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and across portions of the Dominican Republic early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Dominica during the next several hours and across the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall totals: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches possible. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Swells will reach the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi